BHP Predicts Copper Demand to Surge by 1 Million Tonnes Annually Amid Energy Transition
Global mining giant BHP released a report on September 30, highlighting that the global energy transition will drive copper demand up by an additional one million tonnes per year through 2035.
The shift towards copper-intensive technologies, particularly in renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs), has already doubled global copper production rates.
In its report titled BHP Insights: How Copper Will Shape Our Future, the company noted that global copper demand has grown at a 3.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past 75 years.
Although this growth slowed to 1.9% in the 15 years leading to 2021, BHP now expects a rebound, forecasting a 2.6% CAGR in the period through 2035.
In 2023, global copper demand reached 31 million tonnes (mt), consisting of 25mt of copper cathode and 6mt of scrap. Looking ahead, BHP’s Chief Commercial Officer Rag Udd projects that copper demand will rise by 70% by 2050, hitting 50mt annually.
By then, the energy transition is anticipated to account for 23% of global copper demand, up from 7% today. The digital sector is also expected to increase its copper demand share from 1% to 6%.
EVs continue to be a major driver of copper demand, with the transport sector’s copper consumption projected to grow from 11% in 2021 to 20% by 2040, according to the report.
However, BHP warns of significant challenges to meet this growing demand, citing the rising cost of production and declining ore grades, which have dropped by 40% since 1991. The company estimates that an investment of $250 billion will be required by 2050 to bridge the gap between copper supply and demand.
GlobalData, the parent company of Mining Technology, forecasts global copper production to reach 22.9mt in 2024, reflecting a 3.2% increase over 2023 levels.
