Booming Market for Energy Transition Provides Opportunities for Diversification
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the energy transition presents an industrial opportunity with a projected triple increase in market value by 2030, however, it also notes the potential risks, particularly in terms of geographical concentration.
The IEA estimates that by 2030, the global market for major low-carbon energy technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, hydrogen electrolyzers, and heat pumps will reach approximately 650 billion dollars annually, a threefold increase from current levels, assuming countries adhere to their commitments.
Industrial jobs in the sector are expected to increase from 6 million today to almost 14 million.
The world of energy is “at the dawn of a new industrial era”, and this growth should accelerate as the transition progresses, judges this report, which analyzes markets and supply chains and how they are likely to evolve.
Today, mining resources (extraction and refining) as well as production are already highly concentrated, with a marked domination of China in manufacturing production.
In terms of mining resources, the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, produces more than 70% of the world’s cobalt, while Australia, Chile and China provide more than 90% of lithium.
The past few years have already seen tensions in supply chains drive up the prices of many technologies: in 2022, the rise in the price of cobalt, lithium and nickel led, for the first time, to a rise in the price of vehicle batteries electric (+10%).
The cost of wind turbines outside China and photovoltaic panels has also increased, after years of decline.
The “new global energy economy” has quickly become “a pillar of economic strategies. Each country must now identify how it can best benefit from it and also manage the challenges”, underlines the director of the IEA, Fatih Birol.
According to him, “if everything that has been announced is implemented, this investment will make it possible to make two thirds of the way necessary to achieve carbon neutrality” in 2050.
But, with the example of Russian gas in mind, “the world would benefit from more diversified supply chains”, he warns, also calling for “a certain degree of international collaboration, no country being an island in matter of energy”.
To date, only 25% of industrial sites announced in solar photovoltaic are under construction, notes the report, 35% of vehicle battery sites and less than 10% for electrolyzers.
