Cobalt Prices Surge Following DRC’s Export Suspension
On February 28, 2025, the price of cobalt oxide on the Shanghai Metals Exchange rose to €16,640 per tonne (excluding tax), marking a 1.46% increase over the past five days.
This trend was also observed on the London Metal Exchange, where April 2026 cobalt oxide contracts jumped 5%, trading at $22,246.19 per tonne, up from the previous price of $21,153.
This price increase follows the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) announcement on February 22 that it would suspend cobalt exports for four months, a move aimed at addressing the global oversupply and stabilizing prices.
As the world’s largest supplier of cobalt oxide, responsible for 75% of global production, the DRC’s decision has caused market uncertainty, with buyers anticipating a tightening of supply amidst rising demand.
Analysts from the Shanghai Metals Exchange have attributed the price spike to reactions from cobalt processing industries, which temporarily halted bids for refined cobalt to assess the availability of raw ore.
S&P Global had already forecast a reduction in surplus cobalt stocks for 2025, but the DRC’s export suspension has accelerated the price correction.
The export suspension is part of a broader strategy by the Congolese Regulator of Strategic Minerals Markets, ARECOMS, to influence global supply-demand dynamics.
ARECOMS plans to review the impact of the suspension after three months to decide whether to extend, adjust, or lift the measure.
In the meantime, market observers are keenly awaiting the response from major producers, including China’s CMOC, whose investments in the Kisanfu mine have contributed to the global oversupply of copper.
Higher cobalt prices are crucial for the DRC, as the country generates significant revenue from its minerals, as well as taxes and royalties from its mining assets. These funds are vital for meeting the country’s budgetary goals and financing its development initiatives.
However, at the end of 2024, some analysts had projected that it would take time for cobalt prices to rise sustainably, with no expected supply deficit before 2030.
S&P Global’s Joel Crane had forecast that while demand for cobalt, driven by electric vehicle growth, would lead to an 11% annual increase in consumption through 2030, supply growth would only rise by 4% annually due to limited new exploration projects in the DRC.
Crane also noted that although the DRC had added 60,000 tonnes of cobalt since 2022, its contribution is expected to gradually decline. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Sales Director, Nick Burroughs, shares this view.
While the DRC’s export suspension affects the direct cobalt purchase market, particularly in artisanal mining, challenges persist in the supply chain. Artisanal mining accounts for 15-30% of the DRC’s cobalt production.
According to recent reports, ARECOMS has clarified that even after the suspension is lifted, artisanal cobalt can only be sold to Entreprise Générale de Cobalt (EGC), a state-owned subsidiary of Gécamines.
EGC’s Managing Director, Éric Kalala, stated in an interview with Bloomberg that the company intends to purchase artisanal cobalt during the suspension to support miners and strengthen its role as the exclusive buyer. EGC also aims to foster a more transparent supply chain and boost its revenues.
However, concerns remain about whether EGC has the resources and capacity to manage these operations effectively, given the market’s demand for quick transactions. Artisanal miners often seek rapid sales and regularly request advances to finance their activities.
