DRC’s 2025 Finance Law Faces Risks from Mining and Oil Price Volatility
Price volatility in copper, cobalt, gold, and oil could jeopardize the DRC’s 2025 Finance Law, now under parliamentary review. According to draft law document 8, shifts in global commodity prices may lead to budget imbalances, given that mining and hydrocarbons constitute nearly all of the DRC’s exports.
From 2019 to 2023, copper, cobalt, and gold dominated exports, accounting for 70.25%, 16.87%, and 6.74% of mining products, respectively. In 2022, almost 50% of government revenues came from mining, driven largely by rising copper, cobalt, and gold prices.
This heavy reliance on commodities leaves the DRC vulnerable to global shocks, like economic crises or geopolitical conflicts, that could cause revenue declines from mining taxes and royalties.
Simulations from the Ministry of Budget highlight this risk, noting that a $1 drop in oil prices could reduce current revenues by $6.5 million.
To mitigate such risks, the government plans to build reserves during price booms and pursue economic diversification to lessen dependency on mining.
