Mines: Experts predict copper supply deficit in second half of decade (Report)
Experts keep looking at forecasts of both the demand and the supply of the red metal during this decade because copper remains the central raw material of the world industry today.
After hitting a new record high of $ 4.88 per pound on May 10, spot copper prices on the LME (London Metal Exchange) are expected to average $ 4.20 per pound in 2021 and $ 3.96 per pound in 2022, according to the inaugural edition of Critical Metals for a Sustainable World, a new monthly publication from Capitalight Research, reports mining.com.
The report from this Toronto-based research group notes that “trend copper prices must stay well above long-term ‘incentive levels’ to justify the development of a new mine,” or at around $ 3.50 the pound.
According to these experts, the global demand for copper will increase by 3.8% in 2022 to reach around 25 million tonnes. And while the supply of red metal over the next few years will be bolstered by the commissioning of new copper mines such as Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mina Justa in Peru and Timok in Serbia, as well. as new projects in development such as Teck Resources’ Quebrada Blanca Phase 2, he expects “the current wave of mine expansion to peak in 2024 and a significant projected gap in required mining supply will be expected. ‘will open in the second half of the decade’.
Other forecasts indicate that demand for copper “from renewable energy, energy storage and electric vehicle projects could double by 2025 to 8.5 million tonnes,” and notes that “unlike in recent years, prices will be determined less by short-term macroeconomic factors of developments in China and even more by growing demand linked to global decarbonization.
