The demand for Cobalt could increase by 143 to 370% between 2020 and 2040

Linked to a very important economic industry, in particular that of electric cars, cobalt stands out as an essential mineral in the world economy.

According to industry experts, the demand for cobalt could increase by 143 to 370% between 2020 and 2040 depending on the pace of the global energy transition.

In terms of comparison, between 2000 and 2020, cobalt production increased by 320%, while copper production increased by 1,415%.

Manufacturers of electric vehicle (EV) batteries (a market that has grown from virtually nothing in 2010 to producing 2.3 million vehicles in 2020, or 3.2% of the global vehicle market) need this metal.

EV sales, and therefore cobalt demand, are likely to increase
significantly.

Bloomberg forecasts that by 2025, EVs will account for 16% of all new passenger car sales.

By 2040, most vehicles sold will be EVs.

Future growth of 370% therefore seems reasonable. However, in absolute terms and bearing in mind that not all metals can be renewed, this phenomenon implies the exploitation of 22 additional mines the size of Kamoto, the largest cobalt mine in the world at the moment. ‘actual hour.

Due to its criticality, cobalt is a resource with geopolitical implications.

Mining, processing and consuming countries are forging alliances and
creating rivalries to secure the supply of this metal.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where nearly 70% of the world’s cobalt is extracted, and China, which processes most of it, are at the heart of these maneuvers.

The United States and the European Union both want a steady and cheap supply of cobalt so that EVs can replace their country’s fleet of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, and hope that their businesses can also benefit from this vital new market.

Cobalt can fund economic development. The rise in price meant that in 2019, in terms of value, a third of the DRC’s exports were made up of cobalt.

Consequently, the DRC government has declared cobalt to be a “strategic mineral” and has increased royalties on cobalt in order to benefit more from the increase in demand.

The DRC is currently developing new policies to govern its exploitation of this resource.

On the other hand, cobalt may cease to be a critical mineral in the decades to come.

EV buyers, battery makers and miners fear rising prices and supply disruption, as well as human rights abuses, environmental destruction, corruption and political risk.

As with other critical minerals, industries seek to reduce the use of this mineral.

The time available to the DRC and other countries to profit from the exploitation of this mineral could be
short-lived.