Zambia Eyes Record Copper Output as Global Supply Tightens and Prices Surge
Zambia Set to Break Copper Production Records in 2025 Amid $10 Billion Mining Boom and Rising Global Demand
Zambia is on track for record copper production this year, strengthening its position as a major global supplier just as prices surge and demand accelerates worldwide.
A series of accidents and disruptions at major mines in other producing nations has squeezed global supply, pushing copper prices up by more than 20% in 2025. Amid these challenges, Zambia stands out as one of the few countries increasing output — positioning the cash-strapped nation for a significant economic windfall if it can deliver while competitors falter.
To seize the moment, Zambia is expanding production on an unprecedented scale. Major firms, including Barrick Mining Corp., First Quantum Minerals Ltd., and Sinomine Resource Group Co., are collectively investing around $10 billion to boost output.
President Hakainde Hichilema, seeking re-election in August, has made rapid copper growth a cornerstone of his economic agenda, aiming for 3 million tons of annual production by the early 2030s — more than triple current levels.
“We believe in audacious goals,” said Jito Kayumba, the president’s special assistant for finance and investment, in an interview in Lusaka. “We are determined to reach that milestone.”
The global shift toward clean energy, electric vehicles, and renewable infrastructure continues to drive strong copper demand. The metal’s vital role in power grids, batteries, and construction makes it a strategic resource for the global energy transition.
Copper prices are currently trading near record highs, recently reaching $10,887.50 per ton in London. Analysts, including those at Goldman Sachs, expect further gains as the market moves toward a supply deficit later this decade.
The bank raised its 2026 forecast by 5%, signaling that producers able to increase output — such as those in Zambia — have a rare opportunity to capitalize on higher prices and expand profits.
This year’s rally is largely driven by global supply shocks. A major mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo flooded earlier this year, while Chile suffered its deadliest mining disaster in decades. More recently, a mudflow at the world’s second-largest copper mine forced Freeport-McMoRan Inc. to cut its production outlook, followed by a similar reduction from Teck Resources Ltd. in Chile.
Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the DRC, is benefiting from this environment. According to Bloomberg estimates, mining companies have announced over $10 billion in investments that could add roughly 1.2 million tons of new annual output by the 2030s, compared with 821,000 tons produced last year.
The most significant development is Barrick’s $2 billion expansion of the Lumwana mine, located near the Congolese border. The project — the centerpiece of Barrick’s move into copper — is expected to double annual production and recoup its investment within two years of completion in 2028, assuming current market conditions persist.
Historically, relations between copper producers and the Zambian government have been strained. Privatization in the 1990s revitalized the sector after years of state mismanagement, but investor confidence waned in the 2010s amid frequent tax changes and revenue disputes.
Under President Hichilema’s pro-business administration, investment has surged again, supported by policy stability and favorable market conditions.
“The level of investment coming in right now is unmatched in Zambia’s history,” said First Quantum CEO Tristan Pascall, whose company remains the country’s largest copper producer.
Still, achieving the government’s 3 million-ton annual target will require additional breakthroughs. Several major projects face technical and financial challenges, including an ambitious underground expansion led by Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal and a $2 billion mine development by KoBold Metals Co.
To reach its goal, Zambia must also expand exploration efforts. Global mining giants such as Barrick, Anglo American, Ivanhoe Mines, and Rio Tinto are actively prospecting across the country, hoping to uncover new deposits.
President Hichilema anticipates that Zambia will surpass 1 million tons of copper production this year — a first in the nation’s century-long mining history. The milestone could deliver a vital boost to government revenues as Zambia emerges from a complex debt restructuring deal with creditors, including bondholders and China.
Analysts at Barclays, Michael Kafe and Andreas Kolbe, described Zambia’s progress as “remarkable,” noting that the business-friendly environment has reenergized global interest in the country’s mining sector.
SOURCE:mining.com
