DRC’s Cobalt Quotas Reshape the Global Critical Metals Market
DRC Cobalt Export Quotas Trigger Global Supply Shock, Expose China’s Strategic Vulnerability
The decision by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to impose strict export quotas on cobalt beginning at the end of 2025 marks one of the most consequential interventions ever seen in the critical minerals market.
What was framed domestically as a sovereignty-driven reform has rapidly evolved into a global supply shock one that has revealed structural weaknesses in China’s refining dominance and forced a reassessment of supply-chain security across the energy transition ecosystem.
A Sovereign Policy with Systemic Consequences
The DRC accounts for roughly 70% of global cobalt mine production, making it the single most important supplier of a metal essential to lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), aerospace alloys, and grid-scale storage systems.
Following a temporary suspension of exports in February 2025, the government in Kinshasa formalized a quota regime in October:
-18,125 tonnes allocated for Q4 2025
-96,600 tonnes allocated for 2026
-10% of total production reserved as a strategic national stockpile
The reform, backed by President Félix Tshisekedi, aims to:
-Reduce smuggling and transfer pricing manipulation
-Stabilize international cobalt prices
-Increase domestic value capture
-Build a national strategic reserve
The policy includes severe enforcement provisions, including permanent export bans for non-compliant operators.
In official discourse, the reform represents a pivot from raw resource extraction toward strategic resource governance an attempt to convert geological dominance into geopolitical leverage.
China: The Immediate Casualty
China refines approximately 65% of the world’s cobalt and relies heavily on Congolese cobalt hydroxide feedstock. The quota system immediately disrupted trade flows.
During Q4 2025, shipments from the DRC slowed dramatically. The first truck operating under the new regime reportedly departed only in January 2026. Logistical bottlenecks extended delivery timelines to as much as three months.
Inventories at the Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange fell 37%, with over 3,250 tonnes sold by late January.
Refined cobalt prices surged from approximately $10 to $25 per pound.
The payable rate for Congolese cobalt hydroxide rose from roughly 55% to 100% of benchmark metal prices.
These movements exposed a structural vulnerability: China’s downstream dominance remains heavily dependent on upstream concentration in a single jurisdiction.
From Structural Surplus to Emerging Deficit
For years, the cobalt market operated under conditions of structural oversupply, exerting downward pressure on prices. The DRC’s intervention has inverted that dynamic.
By 2026, analysts expect the market to shift into deficit. In 2025 alone:
-Cobalt metal prices doubled
-Hydroxide prices quadrupled
Major producers are divided. Glencore has expressed support for production discipline, viewing quotas as a stabilizing mechanism. Meanwhile, CMOC has taken a more cautious stance, reflecting concerns about long-term market distortion. The transition from surplus to deficit fundamentally alters capital allocation signals across the mining and battery industries.
