IMF Cuts Growth Outlook for Emerging Markets Amid Global Trade Pressures
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its growth forecasts for emerging and developing economies, projecting expansion of 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, according to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.
The revised forecast reflects a 0.2 percentage point drop from the January 2025 estimates, largely attributed to the impact of restrictive trade measures, particularly in China, which has been significantly affected.
Growth expectations for advanced economies have also been lowered, but the most notable adjustments concern inflation.
Global inflation is now projected at 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, following a slower disinflation trajectory than previously anticipated.
While inflation forecasts for advanced economies have been revised upwards, emerging and developing countries are seeing slight downward adjustments. M
onetary policy tightening in developed nations has not yet fully neutralized inflationary pressures.
Emerging economies, meanwhile, face a challenging environment as slowing global trade and restricted access to international financing hamper recovery efforts.
China, traditionally a major driver of global growth, is experiencing a decline in its economic momentum.
In this context, experts emphasize that strengthening supply chain resilience and advancing regional industrial policies will be critical to fostering more sustainable and inclusive growth.
