BHP Raises 2026 Copper Output Forecast After Record Half-Year Performance

BHP Boosts 2026 Copper Production Guidance as Prices Surge and Operations Hit Records

Mining major BHP has raised its 2026 copper production guidance following a record operational performance across its copper and iron-ore assets in the half-year ended December 31, supported by a significantly stronger copper price environment.

Copper prices increased by 32% year-on-year during the period, prompting BHP to lift its group copper production guidance for the 2026 financial year to between 1.9-million and 2-million tonnes, from the previous range of 1.8-million to 2-million tonnes.

“BHP delivered another half of very strong performance with operational records at our copper and iron-ore assets,” CEO Mike Henry said on Tuesday, noting that the results were achieved safely and benefited from favourable commodity prices.

Chile’s Escondida operation was a standout contributor, delivering record concentrator throughput during the half-year. As a result, BHP increased Escondida’s 2026 production guidance to between 1.2-million and 1.275-million tonnes. The improved outlook reflects stronger operating delivery and higher recoveries, offsetting lower planned feed grades.

Copper production guidance was also lifted at Antamina, while operations at Spence and Copper South Australia remained on track. Copper South Australia achieved record material mined and delivered record refined gold output as a by-product during the period.

In iron ore, Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) reported its strongest first-half production and shipments on record, placing the business in a favourable position ahead of the seasonally challenging third quarter.

At Samarco in Brazil, volumes increased sharply following improved performance at its second concentrator, which was restarted late in the previous financial year.

BHP also announced a transaction with Global Infrastructure Partners involving WAIO’s inland power network. The deal is expected to generate proceeds of approximately $2-billion, while allowing BHP to retain ownership and operational control of the asset.

Steelmaking coal production rose, supported by the highest stripping volumes at BMA in five years, while energy coal output increased by 10%, driven by strong performance at NSW Energy Coal.

Beyond its core copper and iron-ore portfolio, BHP confirmed that the Jansen potash project in Canada remains on schedule for first production in mid-2027.

The company flagged a higher capital cost estimate for Jansen Stage 1, citing inflationary pressures and scope changes, but reiterated its view of the project as a long-life, low-cost and scalable asset.

Looking ahead, BHP highlighted resilient commodity demand from China, underpinned by targeted policy support and exports, alongside India’s growing role as a key demand driver for steel and copper.

Global economic growth of around 3% in 2026 is expected to provide a supportive operating backdrop.

“We are investing for the decade ahead, with a significant copper growth pipeline and a pathway to around two-million tonnes of attributable copper production in the 2030s,” Henry said, adding that BHP entered the second half of the 2026 financial year with strong operating momentum.