Cobalt Shortage Set to Persist as DRC Export Controls Tighten Global Supply

Global Cobalt Supply Crunch to Continue Through 2030 as Democratic Republic of the Congo Export Restrictions Disrupt Market

A global cobalt shortage is expected to persist through the end of the decade as export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continue to disrupt supply chains, according to trading firm Darton Commodities.

Cobalt shipments from the DRC declined significantly in 2025 after the government imposed an export ban in February, followed by strict quotas in October.

The country responsible for more than 70% of global cobalt supply introduced these measures to reduce oversupply and support prices.

The impact has been substantial. According to Fastmarkets Ltd., benchmark cobalt prices have surged by more than 160% since the restrictions began, while cobalt hydroxide the primary export product from the DRC has more than quadrupled in value. As a result, the global market recorded a deficit of over 82,000 tons last year.

Darton noted that the export controls have pushed the cobalt market into a “sharp technical deficit.” While stockpiles built up before the restrictions initially softened the impact, these inventories are now being steadily depleted.

Global refined cobalt production fell by around 20% in 2025, marking the first decline in five years.

Although a slightly smaller deficit is expected in the near term, Darton forecasts continued supply shortfalls annually through 2030.

Rising shortages are already putting pressure on downstream industries, including battery manufacturing, aerospace, and defense.

Darton suggested that the DRC may consider easing export quotas to balance higher prices with the risk of weakening demand.

Despite the shift from a full export ban to quotas, shipments only recently resumed due to delays in implementing new procedures.

Initial deliveries to China are expected around May or June, while imports of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) from Indonesia are projected to increase.

However, Darton highlighted risks associated with Indonesia’s growing MHP production, including potential sulfur supply disruptions, limited ore availability, and environmental concerns.

Overall, the DRC’s export policies have exposed structural vulnerabilities in the global cobalt supply chain.

This has accelerated investment in alternative materials and supply diversification trends that could eventually moderate demand growth across key industries.