China’s Coal Consumption Expected to Drop by One-Third by 2040
A recent report by European consultancy DNV has projected that China’s coal consumption will decrease by approximately one-third by 2040, posing a challenge to global climate targets aiming to phase out coal use by the same year.
While the International Energy Agency emphasizes the necessity of eliminating global coal power capacity by 2040 to curb temperature rises within the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, DNV’s findings diverge, indicating a minor increase in China’s coal consumption over the next two years followed by a gradual decline.
Despite a significant surge in renewable energy generation, forecasted to constitute 88% of China’s power mix by 2050, coal usage persists, supported by the approval of additional coal power plants and the burgeoning demand from sectors like iron and steel.
The report highlights the slow progress in decarbonizing sectors such as steel production, a factor contributing to China’s forecasted carbon emissions peaking by 2026, ahead of the official target of 2030.
While natural gas will continue to play a role in China’s energy mix, the report anticipates a modest 2% decline in consumption by 2050 compared to 2022 levels.
However, China appears on track to achieve its carbon neutrality goal by 2060 if it accelerates decarbonization efforts, particularly in manufacturing.
Notably, the report forecasts a significant reduction in oil demand, especially in the road sector, with a projected 94% decline by 2050, driven by electrification initiatives.
This transition is expected to outpace predictions made by China’s oil majors, indicating a faster trajectory towards renewable energy adoption.
Overall, the report underscores the importance of accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources to achieve long-term energy sustainability and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.
