China’s Copper Demand to Peak by 2030 Amid Economic Shifts
A state-backed researcher forecasts that China’s copper demand will peak around the end of this decade, signaling a potential shift away from the bullish outlook traditionally associated with copper.
Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. projects strong demand from the renewables sector—an area copper advocates often highlight.
However, a slowing Chinese economy and an increasing shift toward aluminum in some applications may temper future copper demand.
According to Antaike analyst Yang Changhua, copper demand in China is expected to grow at an annual average of 1.1% over the five years leading up to 2030, compared to a 3.9% growth rate from 2020 to 2025.
Yang noted that the copper intensity in renewable investments is declining, as industries seek ways to reduce copper usage or find alternative materials.
In recent years, optimistic projections for copper have been driven by concerns over supply struggles amid rising global demand. Copper prices reached a record high above $11,000 per ton this year due to supply concerns, but they have since settled near $9,500 per ton on the London Metal Exchange as China’s economy shows signs of slowing and global manufacturing remains subdued.
Yang identified key risks to the “peak by 2030” projection, including potential shifts in China’s manufacturing export strength or the possibility of relocating production abroad.
While Yang did not provide a global demand outlook, he highlighted that China’s combined copper demand from electric vehicles, solar, and wind industries is set to increase, reaching 3.1 million tons by 2030—representing 26% of total demand, up from 15% in 2023.
SOURCE:mining.com
