Cobalt Prices Rebound as DRC’s Export Ban Reshapes Global Battery Market
Cobalt Prices Soar 90% in 2025 as Congo Export Ban Tightens Supply for EV Batteries
A surge in supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—which produces about 80% of the world’s cobalt—combined with sluggish demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector, drove cobalt prices to historic lows at the beginning of 2025.
Copper output in the DRC, much of it controlled by Chinese companies, rose sharply in 2024, driving a nearly 40% increase in the country’s cobalt production. In February, however, the Congolese government imposed a four-month export ban, later extending it in June.
The restrictions quickly reverberated through the market. Cobalt sulphate prices in China, a critical input for EV batteries, surged more than 90% from January to August, reaching an average of $6,947 per tonne. While still far below the 2022 peak of $19,000 per tonne, the rebound highlights cobalt’s renewed market strength.
Cobalt demand in EV batteries overtook other sectors such as aerospace several years ago. According to Toronto-based research firm Adamas Intelligence, which tracks EV battery metal deployment across 120 countries, the DRC’s export strategy has jolted the market back to life.
In August, the global cobalt battery market was valued at $180.1 million, the highest since December 2022. The average cobalt content per EV climbed above $70 per vehicle, up from less than $40 earlier in the year.
Installed tonnage of nickel, cobalt, and manganese now accounts for more than half the value of the global battery metals basket, which totaled $1.28 billion in August. This comes despite the growing adoption of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries, which contain no cobalt, over NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) chemistries.
The shift toward high-nickel cathodes is also reducing cobalt intensity, with cathode formulations containing less than 10% cobalt now dominant worldwide. Even so, the combined value of nickel, cobalt, and manganese deployed in EVs—including plug-in hybrids and conventional hybrids—reached $4.93 billion between January and August 2025.
It’s important to note that installed tonnage figures exclude material losses during processing, chemical conversion, and battery production scrap. These inefficiencies—often in the double digits—mean actual required tonnages and revenues at the mine level are significantly higher.
Congo-based CMOC, the world’s top cobalt producer, continues to ramp up production. Meanwhile, Glencore, the second-largest producer, warned last month that a significant portion of its 2025 cobalt output may remain unsold.
The future market impact hinges on Kinshasa’s next move. If the DRC eases restrictions, the release of stockpiled cobalt could once again flood the market, suppressing prices.
The United States, anticipating volatility, has already taken action. In its first cobalt tender since 1990, the Department of Defense announced plans to secure 7,500 tonnes over five years. While a notable step, the purchase falls far short of absorbing the potential glut should Congo reopen its export pipeline.
