Gold Prices Set to Surge Beyond $4,000 as DRC Output Slumps
Gold prices could soar past $4,000 per ounce in 2026, according to a JP Morgan note published on April 22, 2025.
The American bank attributed its bullish forecast to growing recession risks in the U.S. and ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
JP Morgan projected that gold would average $3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025 and surpass $4,000 in the second quarter of 2026.
The bank also warned that prices could break these thresholds even earlier if demand exceeds expectations.
While global prices were set to rise, gold production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) moved in the opposite direction.
In 2024, the Kibali mine—DRC’s largest industrial gold operation—produced 686,000 ounces, down 10% from 763,000 ounces in 2023, marking its lowest output since 2019.
The artisanal sector performed even worse. Official gold exports plummeted by 66% in 2024, from 5.18 tonnes to just 1.75 tonnes.
The outlook for 2025 remained bleak, with state-owned DRC Gold Trading SA struggling to maintain operations amid persistent security challenges in the east, fueling smuggling and cutting legal exports.
If gold production in the DRC continued to decline, the country risked missing out on the global price surge.
As one of the world’s key producers, a sustained drop in its output could contribute to keeping global prices elevated.
JP Morgan noted that strong demand from investors and central banks was expected to average 710 tonnes per quarter in 2025.
On April 22, 2025, gold’s spot price broke $3,500 per ounce for the first time, fueled by intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions and friction between President Trump and the Federal Reserve. Trump’s pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates added momentum to gold’s rally.
Historically, gold prices tend to rise when interest rates fall, as lower yields diminish the appeal of bonds and increase gold’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty.
Additionally, the U.S. dollar’s decline against the euro, hitting a three-year low, further strengthened gold’s appeal.
In early April 2025, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce, up from $3,300, and suggested that in extreme scenarios, prices could even reach $4,500.
