U.S. Announces 50% Copper Import Tariff, Driving Price Surge and Impacting DRC Copper Exports
U.S. Imposes 50% Copper Tariff: Implications for Global Markets and the DRC’s Copper Industry
On July 8, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 50% tariff on all copper imports, aiming to boost domestic copper production and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers—an issue he labeled a national security risk.
The United States is the world’s second-largest copper importer after China, primarily importing refined copper products.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, copper imports reached $17 billion in 2024, with Chile alone accounting for $6 billion of that total.
While the administration has yet to set an official start date for the tariff, it suggested the measure could come into effect as early as August.
The announcement triggered an immediate spike in copper prices on the U.S. market. On the Commodity Exchange (COMEX), copper futures surged by 13%—the biggest single-day increase since 1968—before settling just below $5.60 per pound the following day.
Traders responded to the anticipated higher import costs by expecting supply shortages. There are also signs of speculative buying, as investors position themselves to benefit from expected price increases once the tariff is enforced.
Impact on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
The price jump coincides with robust global demand for copper, a critical metal used in electric vehicles (requiring about 80 kg per car), renewable energy infrastructure, and other industries.
Analysts forecast a global copper supply deficit of 4.5 million tonnes by 2030, supporting prices on international markets such as the London Metal Exchange (LME).
At the same time, the U.S. move to reduce Chinese influence in supply chains is intensifying trade tensions.
The DRC, producing around 2.5 million tonnes of copper in 2024—approximately 11% of global output—is set to benefit indirectly from rising prices.
The country’s copper sector is dominated by major international companies like CMOC, Zijin Mining, Ivanhoe Mines, and Glencore, with the government typically holding minority stakes.
Most Congolese copper is sold through forward contracts, often linked directly to mining companies or their affiliates.
These contracts fix prices in advance or use historical averages, limiting the government’s immediate gain from price spikes.
Conversely, mining companies see their stock valuations rise with the market. Although the Congolese government has shown interest in joining marketing efforts to capture more value, progress has been limited.
On the fiscal side, the DRC collects export royalties based on forecasted average prices, meaning sudden price increases often do not translate into immediate higher revenue.
The DRC’s 2018 Mining Code includes a superprofit tax of 50% on earnings that exceed economic assumptions by 25% in feasibility studies.
For example, if a project’s study assumes copper at $4 per pound ($8,818.5 per tonne), the tax kicks in at prices above $5 per pound ($11,023 per tonne).
With copper prices currently above $5.60 per pound ($12,368 per tonne), this tax is now applicable to many mining operations.
Copper prices have climbed 38.8% from $4.04 to $5.61 per pound between January and July 2025, nearly doubling over the past five years.
Many projects now exceed the superprofit tax threshold, though calculating exact government revenues remains complex.
The ultimate impact of the U.S. tariff on the DRC depends on how global copper prices and demand evolve.
Industry experts agree that U.S. copper imports will not sharply decline immediately, as the country lacks sufficient domestic mines, smelters, and refineries to meet its needs.
Large-scale projects such as Resolution Copper require 7 to 10 years and billions of dollars in investment before becoming operational.
Currently, the U.S. imports roughly 45% of its copper consumption. Washington may even increase copper purchases to support its plans for industrial revival.
Global copper demand is expected to grow between 3% and 5% annually through 2030, driven largely by the global energy transition.
If the DRC can expand production to between 3.5 and 4 million tonnes, supported by projects like Kamoa-Kakula, the country could potentially earn $30 to $40 billion annually in copper export revenues by the end of the decade.
