Mali Forecasts Lower Gold Production Through 2029 Amid Mining Sector Reforms
Mali Expects Gold Production to Stay Below 60 Tonnes Annually Through 2029 as Mining Reforms Reshape Sector
Mali’s industrial gold production is projected to remain below 60 metric tonnes per year through 2029, according to the Ministry of Mines’ 2026–2029 strategic plan, reflecting the continued impact of sweeping mining reforms and regulatory changes introduced in recent years.
The West African nation, one of Africa’s leading gold producers, has strengthened state oversight of the mining industry following the adoption of a new mining code in 2023.
The reforms are aimed at increasing government revenue from the country’s mineral resources while ensuring greater national benefits from mining activities.
According to the ministry’s projections, industrial gold production is expected to reach 43.2 tonnes in 2026, rise to 51.2 tonnes in 2027, peak at 57 tonnes in 2028, and decline to 50 tonnes in 2029.
While the report outlines the production outlook, it does not provide detailed reasons for the projected fluctuations.
The country’s largest mining operations are expected to remain the main contributors to gold output over the forecast period.
These include B2Gold’s Fekola Mine, Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto Complex, Resolute Mining’s Syama Mine, and Allied Gold’s Sadiola Mine, which together account for the majority of Mali’s industrial gold production.
Meanwhile, artisanal and small-scale gold mining is forecast to remain stable at approximately six tonnes annually throughout the four-year period.
Mining Reforms Continue to Shape the Industry
Mali’s mining reforms have significantly altered the investment landscape, prompting mining companies to renegotiate agreements with the government under the revised legal framework.
The reforms triggered a high-profile dispute between the government and Canadian mining company Barrick Mining over the Loulo-Gounkoto Complex.
The disagreement resulted in the temporary state administration of the operation before both parties reached a settlement last year.
The uncertainty surrounding the reforms has weighed on production and investor confidence, offsetting gains from new mining projects and smaller producers.
Industrial gold output fell to 42.2 tonnes in 2025, down from a revised 54.8 tonnes in 2024 and well below the record 66.5 tonnes produced in 2023.
In addition to lower production, the Ministry of Mines expects the country’s industrial gold reserves to decline over the coming years. Proven reserves are projected to decrease from 906.8 tonnes in 2026 to approximately 748.6 tonnes by 2029, highlighting the need for continued exploration and investment to sustain long-term production.
Despite the expected slowdown, gold will remain the backbone of Mali’s economy and a major source of export earnings.
The government’s challenge will be to balance higher state participation and revenue generation with maintaining an attractive investment environment capable of supporting exploration, mine development and long-term production growth.
